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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."